Forecast update: 6 February 2015
Despite the noise of individual polls, our national polling average has been steady for a while now: it’s been Labour 33%, Conservatives 32% for five consecutive weeks. In a sense, the lack of movement...
View ArticleForecast update: 13 February 2015
It’s a tossup! Our model now gives Labour and the Tories each a 50% chance of winning the most seats, and our central forecast is for them each to win 281 – leaving them both 42 seats short of a...
View ArticleLabour need to tempt not terrify the voters they have lost to the SNP
by Stephen Fisher Abstract: This post summarises the main points from the national and constituency polls in Scotland before discussing what might help Labour north of the border. The British Election...
View ArticleForecast update: 20 February 2015
Last week, our forecast had the election as a tossup: the Tories and Labour each with a 50% chance of winning the most seats. This week, not much has changed. Our national polling average hasn’t moved,...
View ArticleForecast update: 27 February 2015
No change in our polling average this week: it’s still Lab 33%, Con 32%, as it has been since the start of 2015. Our model therefore still makes the Tories favourites to win the most votes (with a 67%...
View ArticleLabour’s tuition fee cut promise and the student vote
Stephen Fisher, 27th February 2015 Today Ed Miliband announced that a Labour government would cut university tuition fees from £9000 to £6000 a year. In December the Higher Education Policy Institute...
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